What’s on the horizon

No competing camera maker likes to have its parade rained on; what more a huge and dominant name with an implacable control of the market and a strong following. But every now and then, the cycle comes around and things change in the market. It’s usually then that the end of one comes and the dawn of a new era arrives. And it might even come from the most unlikely competitor – such is the interesting aspect of this industry.

Throughout the history of the camera industry, often the largest names aren’t the ones to break tradition. Nikon was perhaps the one that started the 35mm revolution against the medium-format establishment, beginning in post-war Japan. Asahi Pentax brought out the open-aperture in-camera metering and they weren’t the outright market leader. Minolta, against all odds, was the first to launch a commercially realisable AF-SLR camera and led the market for some time. Olympus not only produced Japan’s first 35mm camera but also came out with the world’s most compact SLR film camera.

The industry has always been about the small braving the odds and their ideas indubitably alter the complexion of the market. The above is just a smattering of many such incidents – they are many more examples to prove the point.

In light of the market’s embracing of Micro FourThirds, both Nikon and Canon have been strangely silent and non-committal – not exactly very encouraging to their loyal fans and followers. If you were hopeful for signs of a proper response, you’d be disappointed. There has not been any official announcement of anything on the horizon from either company. To say the least, that is unusual.

And so we have decided to come up with our own observations as to what we can see is happening and what we may be able to expect within a shorter frame of time:

Canon’s lower market response

1. Canon will persist on two fronts as a collective response. On the lower front, they will further develop their Powershot G- and SX-series (eg SX20 IS) and incorporate high-definition movie recording functionality. They will also expand movie functionality to their compact camera ranges in a bid to cover their bases at the consumer end of the market. The idea is to inundate the market with a bigger presence to outdo Micro FourThirds.

Canon’s higher market response

1. On the DSLR front, Canon has already begun to incorporate movie functionality with their EOS line, beginning with the 500D (Mar 25 2009), 7D (Sept 1 2009), 1D Mark IV (Oct 20 2009) and 550D (Feb 8 2010) and it will not stop there. The aim is to block Micro FourThirds from making advances into the DSLR segment.

Powershot’s competitiveness against Micro FourThirds

1. The problem with Canon’s strategy in the lower market segment is that these are not lens-interchangeable cameras. Therefore they may still lack the right package to compete. Unless Canon grafts their premium APS-C sized sensors, Micro FourThirds will also eventually out-resolve them also.

EOS’ competitiveness against Micro FourThirds

1. If the customer moves to their DSLR segment, they will find high-definition movie functionality but Micro FourThirds beat them in terms of sheer size, bulk, weight and friendliness. The problem here is that Canon’s DSLR and lens designs are so locked together that if they were to produce a Micro FourThirds competitor, something has to go. Because the larger lens mount won’t help them to downsize, there is only so much that Canon can actually do.

Nikon’s lower market response

1. Like Canon, Nikon’s plans are similar. Lower-end consumer cameras like the Coolpix S4000 and S8000 (both Feb 3 2010) now come with movie-recording capabilities but Nikon does not exactly have a matching Powershot G-series competitor. In a game of catch-up, this is where Nikon is finding itself in any segment not covered by their DSLR range.

Nikon’s higher market response

1. Nikon’s strategy with its DSLR cameras apes Canon. Movie-recording capability is now available in the D300S (Jul 30 2009) but interestingly not the D3000 announced on the same day. On the other hand the slightly higher ranked D5000 (Apr 14 2009) has just as the D3S (Oct 14 2009) also has, which replaces the D3X (Dec 1 2008).

Coolpix’s competitiveness against Micro FourThirds

1. Neither the Coolpix S4000 nor S8000 are positioned competitively against anything that Micro FourThirds offers today or in the future. Being lesser than Canon’s Powershot G-series, they are lesser featured and there is no interchangeable lens capabilities. These cameras are not likely to offer viable alternatives to those who are looking for DSLR-type features and performance but in a small footprint. That’s where Micro FourThirds is at.

D-series’ competitiveness against Micro FourThirds

1. Nikon’s offering of movie-recording functionality within its DSLR range is confusing. While Canon has spread it across higher and lower-end DSLR models, Nikon has chosen to fit it to its more premium cameras, leaving only the D5000. Even the D3000 lacks this feature, leaving it difficult to compete directly with any of Micro FourThirds’ models.

Lens limitation problem with tied up resources

1. Both Canon and Nikon have a lot tied in to their complex range of lenses. With various compatibility issues sharing the same lens mount and having to maintain them to suit their myriad DSLR models then and now, it is difficult to see how they can pour more resources to developing yet another line of ultra-compact lenses to build around a brand new competitor against Micro FourThirds.

A new camera will cannibalise the G-series

1. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense that is, unless Canon, with its huge resources, decides to take a wholesale plunge and create a new camera line. That would justify a whole new range of supporting optics but this may also mean the possible cannibalisation of its Powershot G-series. Furthermore discontinuing the G-series will likely cause uproar in a market filled with dedicated loyalists. To say the least, this is a difficult conundrum to deal with.

Cultural problems with downsizing

1. From a historical perspective, both companies have a collective corporate culture that does not seem to embrace camera downsizing. Form factors have remained on the large side ever since Olympus failed to make an early move in the DSLR segment and even then, efforts to make smaller cameras have been a little lame. Time will tell if they are compelled to change but that would mean following rather than leading the market – not something they are keen to be seen to be doing.

Not much time to hesitate

1. Canon as much as Nikon may be choosing to wait and see how the market pans out with Micro FourThirds but time may not be on their hands to do this any longer. With Ricoh and Samsung already out with their versions, there is also Sony rumoured to be on the brink of releasing theirs. There are also claims that Fujifilm may be joining Micro FourThirds and is in final preparations to announce their version. These are exciting times for the industry but they will add further pressure to the two companies to come out with an appropriate response. 

A possibly resurgent Pentax

1. Pentax, whose DSLR sales have not been the best, have seen better days during the film era. And of all the traditional companies, Pentax has the least to lose in developing a similar camera to compete against Micro FourThirds. They are not encumbered with a huge line-up of lenses the way Canon and Nikon is. Their DSLR sales are flagging and there appears to be strife internally. So the possibility seems good to go for Pentax.

After six models, Micro FourThirds promises plenty of action and some of these are destined to shake up the market. 2010 and 2011 are the immediate years to watch this new platform mature. Olympus understands that this is a splendid opportunity to disrupt the current market leadership that appears in disarray if not indecision. Panasonic, after years of seeing their FourThirds efforts humbled, is actively adding more daylight between it and Sony. As personal as this fight tends to be, Micro FourThirds offers Panasonic tremendous traction in a resurgent market.

In 1972 the OM-1 rewrote the rules for SLR cameras. 38 years on, Micro FourThirds could do even much more than that.